The current state of U.S.-China relations is dismal, but under Trump’s leadership, there’s an opportunity to redefine their engagement. Once perceived as amicable, relations have soured, with Americans increasingly viewing China unfavourably. In 2024, a Pew survey found that 81% of Americans hold negative views of China, particularly after the blame placed on it for U.S. job losses in 2012 overshadowed more complex economic factors.
Unlike China, the U.S. benefits from robust domestic resources and friendly connections, providing it with an edge during negotiations. With the widening economic gap since the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump has a chance to enter discussions with a relatively strong position. Although the 2020 trade agreement fell short of expectations, Trump can now seize the moment to foster a more advantageous U.S.-China trade relationship.
Trump’s approach to diplomacy resembles a game of Monopoly, where nations are pawns in a broader strategy. He can leverage his anti-China stance for credibility, akin to Reagan’s negotiations with the Soviet Union. By holding a summit akin to the 1985 Plaza Accord, Trump can craft a deal that not only consolidates trade relations but also enhances his standing on the global stage.
Given that the U.S. and China collectively represent nearly half of global GDP and manufacturing output, avoiding each other is unfeasible. The existing trade relationship, despite challenges, is significant, with a 2023 trade deficit of $252 billion indicating that U.S. exports maintain considerable value in China. Rather than seeking a decoupling strategy, a cooperative relationship enhances both economies.
While concerns around technology security remain, there are pathways to coexist effectively. The U.S. should aim to keep China embedded in a U.S.-led economic system while ensuring that American workers also benefit from trade. A strategy based on collaboration rather than coercion could yield more effective results in negotiations than simply wielding tariffs as weapons.
Instead of confronting Beijing directly, Trump could foster cooperation by tying tariffs to Chinese investments in the U.S. This strategy presents China with the choice to either face penalties or invest to alleviate trade gaps. Higher tariffs could escalate tensions and consumer prices, so cooperation may be more constructive and beneficial for both parties.
Commencing negotiations could include pathways for Chinese investments to meet expenditure targets without incurring tariffs. This could involve regulations that favour beneficial investments while monitoring security implications. By engaging directly with China on investment and trade, the U.S. can encourage a more balanced and mutually beneficial trade relationship.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Taiwan, present challenges to negotiations. To reshape the narrative, both nations need to recognise that U.S.-China relations should not revolve around Taiwan. Xi’s assertions about Taiwan as an inevitable reunification fuel perceptions of threat in Washington, while a focus on economic cooperation may yield better outcomes.
Trump’s unique diplomatic style could provide the key to better bilateral relations, allowing for direct engagement. Similar to Nixon’s historical trip to China, a meeting at Mar-a-Lago could set a new tone, opening channels for continued dialogue. Such a high-profile summit could lay the groundwork for substantial agreements, ultimately redefining U.S.-China relations for generations to come.
By achieving economic investment agreements, reaffirming the U.S. dollar’s role, and stabilising geopolitical tensions, Trump and Xi could work towards a more balanced global order. Such a transformation not only promises to preserve peace but also allows both countries to co-create a prosperous future together.
U.S.-China relations have hit a low point, but Trump has an opportunity to redefine them. Polls indicate rising unfavourability towards China in the U.S., but Trump’s approach could forge a stronger trade deal. Engaging China through a collaborative framework rather than confrontation, while linking tariffs to investment, may yield mutually beneficial outcomes, despite geopolitical challenges surrounding Taiwan and technology security.
In summary, redefining U.S.-China relations presents significant opportunities amid current tensions. Trump’s approach, combining diplomacy with strategic economic incentives, may allow for a more beneficial trade relationship. By prioritising cooperation over confrontation, there exists a pathway to mutual prosperity, aligning both nations within a U.S.-led global system while navigating complex geopolitical realities.
Original Source: www.cfr.org
