The aggressive immigration policies under Trump’s administration, particularly the deportation of undocumented immigrants, could impose significant burdens on the US economy. Many undocumented workers take on low-wage jobs that American citizens often avoid, meaning their departure would force employers to increase wages to attract domestic workers. Without these workers, industries may struggle, potentially stalling economic growth.
Undocumented immigrants make up a substantial portion of the workforce in various sectors, including serving (12%), maintenance (19%), construction (17%), and farming (25%). A 2015 report from Cornell University highlighted their contributions to the economy, indicating their vital role, making it essential to consider the broader implications of mass deportation beyond just immigration policy.
Should the US witness significant mass deportations, industries across the country would face labour shortages, causing disruptions in employment that may ultimately lead to American workers losing their jobs. According to University of Colorado Denver economist Chloe East, the economy functions as a dynamic system, where one job created does not equate to one less for another.
A working paper from the Peterson Institute for International Economics projects that deporting 1.3 million undocumented immigrants within the first three years could lead to an annual inflation rise of 0.3% and a decrease in the US GDP of the same amount. Should Trump’s plans succeed, the GDP might decline further over the next few years, jeopardising the overall economic landscape.
The financial costs of such deportation measures are staggering. A report from the American Immigration Council indicated that a one-time operation to deport all undocumented immigrants could cost approximately $315 billion. Meanwhile, deporting one million annually might cost about $88 billion, significantly overshadowing the budgets for critical public health initiatives.
The human impact is equally dire, with over four million mixed-status families risking separation, affecting millions of US citizens. Furthermore, the loss of undocumented entrepreneurs—who collectively generated $27.1 billion in revenue in 2022—would adversely affect American communities.
Undocumented households contribute significantly to the economy, paying $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes in 2022. These contributions support social programs that many are ineligible for, demonstrating their economic footprint.
In overview, mass deportation could lead to a GDP loss of 4.2-6.8% annually, rivalling economic declines witnessed during major recessions, like the Great Recession of 2007-09. The contradiction between Trump’s real estate background and stringent immigration processes raises questions about his commitment to economic growth versus political posturing.
This article highlights the potential economic repercussions of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants under Trump’s policies. It discusses the essential role of undocumented workers in various sectors, potential GDP losses, staggering deportation costs, and the human impact on families. The findings suggest a need for a comprehensive immigration strategy that acknowledges the contributions of undocumented immigrants to the economy.
In summary, Trump’s aggressive immigration policies, particularly the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, could lead to widespread economic implications, including labour shortages, increased expenses, and significant GDP losses. The enormity of the associated costs—both human and financial—underscores the need for a balanced approach to immigration that appreciates the contributions of undocumented workers to the economy. The irony lies in overlooking economic rationale in favour of political strategy, posing risks to the broader U.S. economy.
Original Source: m.economictimes.com
