In a surprising twist of fate, world-renowned economist Brett Neiman found his own research serving as the foundation for President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. During an event called ‘Liberation Day’, Trump announced hefty tariffs on 60 countries, leaving Neiman to ponder how such colossal numbers were determined. Following the White House’s reveal, his confusion turned to alarm as he discovered the administration misused his academic paper, leading to budgetary calculations that were significantly inflated.
Neiman’s research, mistakenly quoted by the Office of the US Trade Representative, indicated that the tariffs should be drastically lower—essentially revealing that the rates imposed could be four times greater than necessary. The economist questioned, “Where does 25 percent come from?” suggesting that the administration’s approach to tariffs, especially on major trading partners, was misguided. He asserted that seeking to eliminate trade deficits is unrealistic, as international commerce reflects natural economic disparities.
His argument resonated with the sentiments of Nobel laureate Robert Solow, who likened trade deficits to personal financial imbalances—such as his perpetual deficit with his barber—highlighting their inconsequential nature in assessing market health. Neiman boldly reiterated that the implications of Trump’s tariffs could spark a significant economic fallout, with rates poised to rise to levels unseen in a century. He deemed the tariff calculations misguided and suggested they be revised downwards by a factor of four.
As international markets reacted to the tariff news with sharp declines, economists began to forecast a potential global recession, wary of economic repercussions stemming from Trump’s trade policies. They observed betting markets indicating an alarming 62 percent chance for a recession, a steep rise sparked by the tariff announcements. As world leaders began discussions to negotiate a potential ‘zero-zero’ tariff arrangement, Trump’s determination to maintain his tariffs contrasted sharply with proposals for trade cooperation.
Despite mounting pressure for negotiation and criticism from allies like Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon—who warned about inflationary effects—Trump remained resolute. He dismissed calls for tariff reconsideration, asserting his strong stance against what he called unfair practices from foreign nations. Amidst the economic turbulence and escalating tensions with China, Trump vowed to retaliate against any continued aggression, further complicating an already fraught economic situation.
Additionally, legal challenges emerged against Trump’s tariffs, spearheaded by a libertarian group that argued his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose such tariffs was unlawful. They claimed that the power to impose tariffs lies exclusively with Congress, highlighting a potential legal quagmire for the president. As political tensions rise, Trump urged his supporters to remain undeterred, framing his tariff decisions as necessary for America’s economic resurgence.
In these turbulent times, the future of trade relations hangs in the balance, shaped by the consequences of ambitious but contentious tariff policies, testing the endurance of economic strategists and politicians alike.
World-renowned economist Brett Neiman was shocked to find his research was used to justify President Trump’s tariffs, which he claims are substantially inflated. Neiman argues the methodology behind the tariffs is flawed, suggesting they could be four times lower. Global economic concerns have risen, with fears of a recession exacerbated by the tariffs, while calls for negotiation contrast with Trump’s firm stance on maintaining his tariffs. Legal challenges against the tariffs could further complicate the situation.
In summary, Brett Neiman’s unintended role as the foundation for Trump’s tariffs reveals a significant miscalculation in the administration’s economic strategy. The tariffs, which Neiman asserts are inflated, threaten to spark a global economic downturn, as evidenced by market reactions and the growing probability of recession. Proposals for a ‘zero-zero’ tariff agreement present a possible pathway forward, yet Trump’s steadfastness complicates matters, urging his supporters to rally behind his controversial policies even as legal challenges loom over their legitimacy. The economic landscape remains fragile, as policymakers navigate the ramifications of increasing tariffs on both domestic and global fronts.
Original Source: www.dailymail.co.uk
