In today’s dynamic global landscape, nations must look ahead and gear up for emerging technological advancements to stay relevant and promote sustainable growth. A pivotal tool for this is the Delphi method, a structured and interactive forecasting technique that utilises expert insights to predict technological trends and inform national planning.
The Delphi method operates over multiple rounds of surveys where experts offer their insights and refine them through feedback until a consensus is reached. This method’s strength lies in its ability to gather diverse viewpoints, reduce biases, and create a unified vision for future technological developments. In national planning, it assists policymakers in identifying emerging technologies and developing strategies with long-term socio-economic benefits.
The involvement of a varied panel of experts from academia, industry, and government enriches the foresight process. They engage in successive anonymous surveys, enhancing their predictions through aggregated responses. The conclusions drawn from these insights form a robust framework that supports national strategies, influencing research funding, infrastructure development, and regulatory measures.
Japan exemplifies the effective utilisation of the Delphi method in foresight, consistently conducting Delphi surveys since the 1970s to steer its national R&D priorities. This method has notably influenced Japan’s strategies in advanced manufacturing and robotics, catalysing significant investment in these fields and leading to innovations like Honda’s ASIMO and SoftBank’s Pepper.
Germany has adeptly incorporated the Delphi method via its BMBF Foresight Process, managed by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. This initiative has been key in shaping Germany’s national innovation strategy, especially its focus on renewable energy technologies, culminating in the Energiewende strategy and reinforcing Germany’s position as a leader in solar and wind energy.
South Korea’s transformation into a technology powerhouse is largely attributed to its foresight-based policies. The Korean government’s KISTEP has harnessed Delphi Foresight to direct its R&D investments, particularly in semiconductor technology, which spurred the growth of industry giants like Samsung and SK Hynix.
Singapore has successfully adopted Delphi-type foresight for national planning, spearheading initiatives under its Research, Innovation, and Enterprise plans. A*STAR has identified key technologies aligned with Singapore’s economic dreams, notably its investments in fintech and AI, fostering its reputation as a global financial technology hub.
Turkey’s Scientific and Technological Research Council (TUBITAK) has embraced foresight methodologies to enhance innovation and economic growth. By focusing on defence technology and renewable energy through Delphi-based studies, Turkey has made substantial advances in these sectors.
China has increasingly integrated Delphi-type foresight into its planning, especially within its Five-Year Plans, shaping its nationwide innovation strategy and advancing its capabilities in AI, following the launch of the significant ‘Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan’ in 2017.
The UK government, leveraging foresight techniques including the Delphi method, has shaped policies for emerging technologies like biotechnology and cybersecurity. The foresight-driven focus on genomics has positioned the UK at the forefront, particularly through initiatives such as the 100,000 Genomes Project designed to innovate personalised healthcare.
Pakistan stands to gain immensely from adopting Delphi-based Foresight in national planning. Drawing on past experiences, the country should focus on key fields like renewable energy and digital transformation. By nurturing research institutions and encouraging industry-academia partnerships, Pakistan can steer investments towards high-impact sectors like AI and biotechnology, ultimately positioning itself within the global knowledge economy.
The article discusses the importance of strategic foresight in national planning, particularly through the Delphi method, which utilises expert opinions to predict future technological trends. This technique has been successfully applied in countries like Japan, Germany, and South Korea to influence R&D priorities and foster innovation. Pakistan is encouraged to adopt similar methods to drive economic development and stability in key sectors.
In conclusion, harnessing the Delphi method for strategic foresight offers nations a pathway to anticipate and adapt to technological advancements, ensuring sustainable development. Countries like Japan, Germany, and South Korea demonstrate the success of foresight methodologies in shaping national policies and driving innovation. For Pakistan, embracing these practices can lead to significant growth and stability in challenging sectors, paving the way for a prosperous future.
Original Source: www.thenews.com.pk
