Dairy economists at the University of Wisconsin are analysing how Trump’s policies, particularly retaliatory tariffs and programme cuts, impact U.S. dairy farmers. Leonard Polzin notes that Dr. Charles Nicholson is assessing the implications of a significant 25% retaliatory tariff as well as cuts to nutrition programmes, particularly affecting the SNAP initiative.
According to Polzin, the SNAP programme significantly influences dairy consumption, accounting for about 10% of fluid milk sales. He highlights potential reductions in domestic demand, anticipating a 4% drop due to proposed cuts to these essential nutrition programmes.
Furthermore, tighter immigration policies implemented under Trump are predicted to lead to a decline in the workforce available to farmers. Polzin suggests that an increase in labour costs by 20% along with a reduction in productivity by 10% will result from these immigration restrictions.
As exports form a crucial pillar for the dairy industry, Polzin emphasises the importance of tariffs and export policies. He estimates that nearly 20% of U.S. dairy components, primarily nonfat solids, are exported, meaning any hindrances will directly affect profitability at the farm level. This sector has thrived primarily through exports over the past decade.
Polzin also points out that in 2024, around 40% of the U.S. dairy export value originated from sales to Mexico, Canada, and China, all of which are now facing new tariffs proposed by President Trump, illustrating the potential threats to this vital market.
Dairy economists at the University of Wisconsin are studying the implications of Trump’s policies on U.S. dairy farmers, focusing on retaliatory tariffs, nutrition programme cuts, and immigration policy. Key findings predict a 4% reduction in domestic dairy demand and increased labour costs leading to diminished productivity. Tariffs on crucial export markets could significantly impact profitability.
In conclusion, Trump’s policies, particularly regarding tariffs and immigration, pose tangible threats to the U.S. dairy industry. Significant reductions in domestic demand due to nutrition programme cuts and higher labour costs stemming from immigration restrictions threaten farmers’ profits. Moreover, tariffs on critical markets like Mexico, Canada, and China could hamper future growth, highlighting the intricate links between policy and the dairy sector’s health.
Original Source: www.brownfieldagnews.com
