In a world increasingly defined by fragmentation, we observe four powerful megatrends shaping our future: demographics, technology, institutions, and globalisation. Each megatrend comes with its own uncertainties, inviting a nuanced analysis through scenario modelling, which provides a counterpoint to our baseline long-term forecasts. Such scrutiny reveals complex dynamics at play, particularly in the context of our latest Global Risk Survey.
The survey unveiled that a striking one-third of businesses perceive geopolitical tensions and protectionism as the foremost long-term threat to economic stability. Within our Megatrends Scenarios service, we delve into a narrative of a fractured world, where protectionism prevails, and the momentum of globalisation falters, as nations prioritise economic nationalism. This shift towards restrictive trade policies diminishes the intensity of global commerce, undermining the progress achieved during the vibrant decade of the 2010s.
Moreover, the accompanying atmosphere of geopolitical trepidation inflicts severe damage on the global economy, disrupting established fiscal, monetary, and diplomatic frameworks. Nations, particularly those in emerging markets, bear the brunt of this upheaval, facing dwindling foreign direct investment and diminished knowledge transfers, all while navigating an ever-complicated web of trade relations.
To glean insights into these shifting paradigms, we invite you to explore our Megatrends Scenarios service, which serves as a beacon for understanding future economic terrain. Such services stand alongside others like the Global Economic Model and Global Climate Service, all designed to equip you for the uncertain future ahead.
In navigating this murky landscape, staying informed and adaptable is crucial as we collectively face the growing spectre of a fractured world.
The article explores a ‘Fractured World’ scenario driven by megatrends like demographics and technology, highlighting that over a third of businesses view geopolitical tensions and protectionism as significant risks. This scenario depicts a retreat from globalisation as nations adopt economic nationalism, adversely impacting global trade and particularly affecting emerging markets through reduced foreign investments. Understanding these trends is crucial for navigating future economic uncertainties.
In summary, the rising presence of geopolitical tensions and protectionist policies marks the dawn of a fractured global landscape. Emerging markets particularly suffer under these changing tides, as trade restrictions disrupt economies and stifle growth opportunities. Through our various scenario services, we aim to illuminate these uncertainties and empower businesses to navigate the complexities of the future economy, ensuring preparedness in a world that is rapidly changing.
Original Source: www.oxfordeconomics.com
