In 2019, Boris Johnson journeyed to meet Donald Trump at the G7 summit in Biarritz, enthusiastically promoting the concept of a post-Brexit trade deal with the US. He highlighted an array of quintessentially British products, from pork pies to shower trays. Despite their seemingly favourable connection and the initiation of formal discussions the following year, a concrete agreement never materialised.
Following Keir Starmer’s recent visit to Washington, the UK and US seem to be pivoting away from a comprehensive free trade agreement. Instead, the focus is likely to narrow on a limited economic deal prioritising technology collaboration. This shift recognises the historically lukewarm enthusiasm in America for expanding trade relationships with other nations.
The last new US free trade agreement implemented was with Colombia in 2011, excluding the USMCA, which merely revised existing NAFTA agreements. For the UK, pursuing a broad trade deal hinges on politically sensitive issues such as agriculture and the NHS, which both pose significant hurdles.
The US’s want for ‘comprehensive market access for US agricultural goods in the UK’ raises concerns over standards that the UK may resist, especially given its potential impact on trade relations with the EU. Labour’s interest in fostering a closer post-Brexit relationship with the EU complicates these negotiations, as aligning with US food norms could jeopardise vital veterinary agreements with Brussels.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting affirmed the NHS would remain off the negotiating table, yet hinted at the potential for data sharing, which could benefit UK patients through access to new treatments. He highlighted, “We’re not in the business of selling off people’s data, but in terms of data access, absolutely… the NHS can get in return is being a really strong partner for clinical trials.”
Experts like John Springford from the Centre for European Reform propose a tech-focused deal, even suggesting the UK align its artificial intelligence regulations with US standards. This approach could be less cumbersome than engaging in the intricate details of a full-fledged free trade agreement.
The UK and US’s refusal to commit to an ‘inclusive and sustainable’ AI declaration at a recent Paris summit hints at this strategy. Additionally, growing UK defence spending may lead to potential arms procurement collaboration, although past misunderstandings, like Trump’s confusion regarding the Aukus alliance, remind us of complex dynamics at play.
Ultimately, any potential deal is likely more about mitigating tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration than expanding market access for UK products. This reoriented focus significantly diverges from the expansive agreements initially envisioned by Brexit supporters, yet in the shifting landscape of global trade, it could still represent a substantial victory.
The prospect of a UK-US economic agreement appears to be narrowing focus towards a limited technology collaboration, rather than a broad trade deal initially envisioned post-Brexit. Challenges arise from agriculture standards and NHS implications, while experts suggest the potential for successful negotiations focused on areas like AI regulation and defence spending. The goal now shifts to managing tariffs rather than expanding markets for UK exports.
The evolving landscape of UK-US economic relations suggests a shift towards a narrowly focused deal centred on technology, rather than the broad trade agreements previously anticipated. While political sensitivities regarding agriculture and the NHS create significant barriers, opportunities for collaboration in AI and defence could pave the way for fruitful negotiations. Ultimately, it’s about navigating tariffs rather than expanding market access, reflecting a pragmatic approach amid changing global trade dynamics.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
