In a lively discussion at The Coeur d’Alene Resort, Idaho Department of Labor economist Sam Wolkenhauer outlined the state’s economic resilience amid ongoing inflation and tariffs. Addressing a packed house, he highlighted that low unemployment and rising wages position Idaho favourably for the year ahead. With an unemployment rate below 4%, Wolkenhauer expressed optimism, stating the labour market remains robust without significant distress.
However, he noted a slowdown in demographic growth due to rising mortgage rates, which hover around 7%, more than double their previous lows. Idaho’s ability to attract new residents is critical, as the state needs to fill an estimated 110,000 jobs in the next decade. Gen Zs moving to Idaho and starting families could become a pivotal factor in addressing this employment gap.
Wolkenhauer underscored the importance of developing housing to accommodate families and retain young talent, indicating that without these efforts, Idaho’s economic strength could wane. He also revealed that Idaho’s total payroll had surged by $10 billion in recent years, outperforming national growth.
Yet, the dark clouds of economic challenges loom, particularly high housing costs and unfavourable mortgage conditions as they threaten to dampen the state’s appealing growth trajectory. With migration numbers dwindling from 50,000 in 2021 to half that last year, sustaining growth through organic community building is increasingly essential.
Dr. John Mitchell warned that continued inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal would inhibit long-term interest rate reductions. He anticipates 2025 could be a positive year for consumer spending and investments underpinned by the looming shadow of the federal debt crisis, necessitating attention to substantial fiscal areas like Social Security.
Mitchell cautioned about potential ‘black swan’ events that, while unlikely, could significantly disrupt the economy. He urged preparedness for unforeseen developments, especially concerning international trade and tariffs, predicting that such issues could lead to rising prices in the future. “Best to remain seated with your belt fastened,” he advised, alluding to the unpredictable economic turbulence ahead.
Idaho’s economic outlook appears strong, with low unemployment and rising wages indicating resilience against inflation. However, challenges such as high mortgage rates could hinder demographic growth, impacting job fulfilment. Economists stress the importance of attracting new residents and maintaining housing development to bolster the state’s economy. Concerns about inflation and potential economic shocks remain, necessitating vigilance for future developments.
The economic outlook for Idaho showcases both strengths and potential pitfalls, with robust labour market conditions contrasting against challenges like high housing costs and slower migration. While the state appears well-positioned for growth in 2025, experts caution that systemic issues and unexpected economic shocks could pose significant threats to this trajectory. Ultimately, fostering job growth and accommodating new residents will be vital for Idaho’s sustained prosperity.
Original Source: cdapress.com
