Original Source: www.theguardian.com
In the aftermath of the 1999 Battle of Seattle, Michael Dolan recalls the fierce clash between anti-globalization protesters and the World Trade Organization (WTO), which has never truly recovered from the disruption. This gathering, aimed at freeing international trade, was overwhelmed by dissent from workers worldwide, who felt that the WTO favored multinational corporations at the expense of their rights.
Now, the WTO stands on the brink of a new crisis, this time fueled by Donald Trump’s imminent return to power. Trump, advocating for protectionism, sees international trade agreements as detrimental, particularly benefiting China while hurting US interests. He declared that tariffs, which he holds in high regard, would reinvigorate American businesses and restore jobs.
Trump’s presidency reaffirms fears among WTO observers that the organization may face its demise if he reinstates restrictive trade policies. He could swiftly enact tariffs on various countries, rivalling existing WTO rules, especially against Canada, Mexico, and China. His proposed 25% tariff suggests a dramatic shift back to a protectionist stance.
Dolan believes Trump’s criticism mirrors his own view on global trade norms undermining domestic welfare, particularly when contending with China’s support for its export-driven industries. Reflecting on the 1999 Seattle protests, he challenges the WTO’s 2001 decision to grant China preferential status, deeming it a major error that led to job erosion in manufacturing sectors.
Since that pivotal moment, the WTO has struggled for momentum. Attempts to revive trade discussions after 9/11 fizzled out, particularly during the Doha round, as countries like India and Brazil resisted significant reform. According to trade expert Alan Winters, Trump’s unilateral moves and focus on bilateral deals further jeopardize the multilateral basis of trade.
Julian Hinz echoes this sentiment, noting that while WTO rules still influence much of global trade, the rise of protectionism threatens to overshadow its relevance. The organization’s hesitation to confront China’s trade practices exposes its weaknesses, particularly around subsidy transparency.
Moreover, the WTO has grappled with operational challenges, including the complexities of forging consensus among its 166 members. Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has faced significant hurdles during her tenure, from the pandemic to geopolitical disruptions affecting members’ interests.
Her notable attempt to facilitate vaccine sharing sought to aid developing nations but collided with resistance from wealthier countries. Additionally, Trump’s blockade on appointing judges to resolve disputes has compounded the WTO’s issues, rendering it more of a thinktank than an effective trade entity.
As Trump resumes leadership, Dolan questions the motivation behind Okonjo-Iweala’s continued commitment to her role, suggesting the WTO may be drifting towards irrelevance.
The article chronicles the historical context of the World Trade Organization (WTO), focusing on its challenges stemming from events like the Battle of Seattle in 1999, where protests against globalization affected trade negotiations. With Trump’s presidency on the horizon, the WTO faces existential threats due to his protectionist stance and plans for tariffs. Key figures in trade commentary provide insight into the implications of unilateral trade actions and how they could undermine multilateral agreements, challenging the WTO’s very foundation.
In summary, as Donald Trump prepares to retake office, the WTO stands at a crossroads between irrelevance and potential reform. The tensions between protectionism and free trade, combined with past decisions regarding China’s trade status, threaten the organization’s stability. Observers highlight the fragility of multilateral trade talks, urging for renewed commitment to cooperation if the WTO is to remain a vital player in global commerce.
